2021 is in the books. Below are the actual results from 21 and a % difference between my guess and actual. And of course, my prediction for the end of 2022. I was pretty close on the Nasdaq, and I was a lot closer on the Dow at the start of December than how it ended up. A couple of points to make about my predictions (commentary, if you will…). First, I think there is a market buy off coming in the spring/summer of 22. 2022 is also an election year, and I’m guessing that the stock market will recover from a trough in the fall due to a change in power due in the House and Senate (not an expression of a political point, just my prediction of what I think is going to happen) and a predictable market revival when the R party assumes power. The increase in interest rates is already baked into the market to start in January, but I think when it actually does happen, it will bring a shock to the system that will lead to the market decline noted above. I think the big lever on all of this is whether there will be a new variant that is vaccine resistant. I’m not going to make a prediction on that, but I’ve had enough of Delta and Omicron.
Indice | Estimated Value Dec 31, 2021 | Actual Value Dec 31, 2021 | % Delta | Estimated Value Dec 31, 2022 |
Dow Jones | 32,468 | 36,338 | 10.6% | 36,891 |
Nasdaq | 15,629 | 15,644 | .1% | 14,735 |
S&P 500 | 4,232 | 4,766 | 11.2% | 4,456 |
Russell 2000 | 2,381 | 2,245 | -6.1% | 2,270 |
Brk-b | 282 | 299 | 5.7% | 314 |
Gold – Comex | 1788 | 1,829 | 2.2% | 2,024 |
Oil – NY Merc. | 64.50 | 75.45 | 14.5% | 82.5 |
Bitcoin | 47,220 | 46,306 | -1.9% | 32,535 |
The final prediction I’ll make for this year is the upcoming election in November.
Current House: Dem = 222, Rep 213. Nov 22: Dem = 209, Rep 226
Current Senate: Dem = 50, Rep 50. Nov 22: Dem 46, Rep 54