Stock Market Predictions for 2022

2021 is in the books. Below are the actual results from 21 and a % difference between my guess and actual. And of course, my prediction for the end of 2022. I was pretty close on the Nasdaq, and I was a lot closer on the Dow at the start of December than how it ended up. A couple of points to make about my predictions (commentary, if you will…). First, I think there is a market buy off coming in the spring/summer of 22. 2022 is also an election year, and I’m guessing that the stock market will recover from a trough in the fall due to a change in power due in the House and Senate (not an expression of a political point, just my prediction of what I think is going to happen) and a predictable market revival when the R party assumes power. The increase in interest rates is already baked into the market to start in January, but I think when it actually does happen, it will bring a shock to the system that will lead to the market decline noted above. I think the big lever on all of this is whether there will be a new variant that is vaccine resistant. I’m not going to make a prediction on that, but I’ve had enough of Delta and Omicron.

IndiceEstimated Value Dec 31, 2021Actual Value Dec 31, 2021% DeltaEstimated Value Dec 31, 2022
Dow Jones32,46836,33810.6%36,891
Nasdaq15,62915,644.1%14,735
S&P 5004,2324,76611.2%4,456
Russell 20002,3812,245-6.1%2,270
Brk-b2822995.7%314
Gold – Comex17881,8292.2%2,024
Oil – NY Merc.64.5075.4514.5%82.5
Bitcoin47,22046,306-1.9%32,535

The final prediction I’ll make for this year is the upcoming election in November.

Current House: Dem = 222, Rep 213. Nov 22: Dem = 209, Rep 226

Current Senate: Dem = 50, Rep 50. Nov 22: Dem 46, Rep 54